2025 Kentucky Derby odds, preview and betting strategies for the Run for the Roses
The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to take place on Saturday evening. Post time for the race is set at 6:57 p.m. EST in Churchill Downs.
Last year, we saw one of the tightest photo-finishes you will ever see as Mystik Dan won by a nose over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. This year’s event will try to top that excitement.
We’ve already seen two major scratches for the race, as Bob Baffert-trained No. 4 Rodriguez was scratched on Thursday due to a hoof bruise. On Friday, it was announced that No. 10 Grande, trained by Todd Pletcher, won’t be able to race due to a foot bruise.
With only one other horse eligible to join the field, No. 21 Baeza was a late addition to the race. There will be 19 horses running for the roses, if no other late scratches come down.
While horse racing wagering might not be as popular and prevalent in culture as it once was, the Kentucky Derby is still one of the biggest betting days on the sports calendar. Let’s take a look at this year’s field.
Kentucky Derby betting odds
Here’s this year’s field, listed in order of post position. The odds listed are the morning-line odds and are subject to change as we get closer to post time.
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-to-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-to-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-to-1 |
| 4 | American Promise | 30-to-1 |
| 5 | Admire Daytona | 30-to-1 |
| 6 | Luxor Cafe | 15-to-1 |
| 7 | Journalism | 3-to-1 |
| 8 | Burnham Square | 12-to-1 |
| 9 | Flying Mohawk | 30-to-1 |
| 10 | East Avenue | 20-to-1 |
| 11 | Publisher | 20-to-1 |
| 12 | Tiztastic | 20-to-1 |
| 13 | Render Judgement | 30-to-1 |
| 14 | Coal Battle | 30-to-1 |
| 15 | Sandman | 6-to-1 |
| 16 | Sovereignty | 5-to-1 |
| 17 | Chunk of Gold | 30-to-1 |
| 18 | Owen Almighty | 30-to-1 |
| 19 | Baeza | 12-to-1 |
The Favorites
There are three horses that pay out at less than 10-to-1, which means the odd setters view these three horses as most likely to win the race.
Journalism
The morning-line favorite at 3-to-1, Journalism enters the Kentucky Derby with four straight victories, including three graded stakes. In his most recent tuneup, Journalism won last month’s Santa Anita Derby.
The biggest concern is how Journalism handles a larger field compared to the smaller fields he has raced against. In five starts, the horse has 4 wins and one third-place finish.
Sovereignty
Sovereignty is an interesting look at 5-to-1. In the most recent race the horse ran, he finished second in the Florida Derby. In five races, Sovereignty has two wins and two second-place finishes.
The wins came at the Fountain of Youth stakes as well as the Street Sense Stakes last year. As a closer, Sovereignty needs to be able to navigate the field to put himself in a position late.
Sandman
Sandman flashed his potential in his most recent race, coming from 8th in a nine-horse field to win the Arkansas Derby by 2.5 lengths. In eight career races, Sandman has finished on the podium six times with three victories.
Jockey Jose Ortiz has won the Preakness and Belmont, but is yet to win the Kentucky Derby. Ortiz will need to navigate a larger field to put Sandman in a position to make his patented late run.
Kentucky Derby betting strategies
There’s no right or wrong way to bet on the Kentucky Derby. Sure, if you want to bet horses on a regular basis, there are factors you want to consider. However, if you’re only betting a few times a year and do so responsibly, it’s okay to have some fun with it.
Here’s a list of some of the more common betting strategies out there:
- Bet the favorite: We haven’t seen a favorite win the Kentucky Derby since 2018 with Justify, but a look at Derby history suggests that the favorite is usually a good bet. The horse with the lowest odds wins this race about 34.2% of the time. This year, it’s Journalism at 3-to-1 that holds the honor of being the morning-line favorite.
- Connections: Take a look at the owner, the trainer, and the jockey. For a list of owners and their Kentucky Derby history, check out this link. Bob Baffert is one of the more storied trainers of all time with six Kentucky Derby wins. After serving a three-year Derby suspension, Baffert returns, having trained Citizen Bull. As far as jockeys, Flavien Pratt (riding Baeza), Brian Hernandez Jr. (riding Burnham Square), Joel Rosario (riding Tiztastic), and Javier Castellano (riding Owen Almighty) have all won the Kentucky Derby.
- Post position: Post positions do matter. Starting too far inside could mean it’s difficult to get out front. Starting too far outside requires a longer distance travelled to get to the middle of the track. The middle is the sweet spot. Statistically, the No. 5 post position has the most wins of any post position. After a few scratches, Admire Daytona will run out of that spot. There has never been a winner starting from the 17 gate: a trend that Chunk of Gold will look to snap.
- Gray horses: Gray horses look different, so they generate some excitement from people who might not care about a horse’s pedigree or speed rating. No gray horse has won the Kentucky Derby since 2005. There are three grays running this year: Sandman, Final Gambit, and Chunk of Gold.
Some might just pick their favorite number or a name they think is funny. Others go way in-depth with analytics and analyze the horses’ pedigrees. No matter what your strategy is, throwing in a wager is a fun way to enjoy the fastest two minutes in sports.