Tom Moran: Trump’s nosedive in polls could save our democracy

If Donald Trump could crown himself emperor, as Napoleon did, it’s pretty clear by now that he would do it. In his own words, “He who saves his country does not violate any law.”

But Napoleon had something that Trump lacks. He was wildly popular at the time, and placed the crown on his own head only after the people of France voted with near unanimity to give him that power.

Trump is no Napoleon. Trump’s misrule and cruelty have made him the most unpopular president in modern history after his first 100 days. Majorities now oppose him even on the economy and immigration, his signature issues. In a fresh New York Times/Sienna College poll, 66 percent said the word “chaotic” describes this mess, and 59 percent said “scary” is a good fit as well.

Even Joe Rogan, the mega-podcaster who endorsed Trump last year, is turning against him, using words like “stupid” and “horrific” to describe his behavior.

This collapse in support for Trump may help us save our democracy. Because if you look at other leaders who have grabbed authoritarian powers once they were elected to office, they have one thing in common: Like Napoleon, they began with overwhelming public support.

Steven Levitsky, a Harvard professor and co-author of “How Democracies Die,” notes that authoritarian leaders in El Salvador, Peru and Venezuela all had approval ratings over 80 percent when they began taking power from judges, persecuting political opponents and limiting the free press.

“Authoritarian leaders do the most damage when they enjoy broad public support,” Levitsky wrote recently. “Such overwhelming public support helps leaders secure the legislative supermajorities or landslide plebiscite victories needed to impose reforms that entrench autocratic rule. It also helps deter challenges from intraparty rivals, judges, and even much of the opposition.”

Keep in mind, too, that Trump’s popularity is likely to continue dropping through the summer. That’s happened to every other president since the 1990s. We tend to sour on them after the 100-day honeymoon is over.

Bill Clinton’s approval rating dropped by 11 points between April and September of his first year, and so did George W. Bush’s. Barack Obama lost 15 points, and Joe Biden 14 points.

Trump’s dive could be even steeper if he stays his course, as seems likely. The tariffs, opposed by nearly two-thirds of American voters, are likely to spark more inflation when they take effect. His deportations of undocumented immigrants with no criminal records are likely to continue, and are unpopular. And if he explicitly defies court rulings, as his team threatens, that will cost him as well.

“None of the factors that are driving down the President’s approval rating are in the rear-view mirror yet – they’re still happening,” Nate Cohn, a political analyst for the New York Times said on The Daily podcast. “The point is that the actions that the President has taken to this point have already done discernible political damage. And if he continues with this pattern of conduct, he risks additional damage. And it’s worth noting that we’re talking about Trump’s core strengths here, the economy and immigration. So, he’s risking the foundation of his appeal for large segments of the electorate.”

And there may be surprises, of course, and fresh reasons for Trump to lose support. How will Americans feel if Russia gobbles up Ukraine? How about another round of tax cuts tilted to the rich, financed by steep cuts to Medicaid and more debt?

And don’t forget the risk of scandal. The Trump family is raking in quite a lot of cash in crypto markets. Any chance that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth might get Trump into trouble when he’s not posting pictures of himself lifting weights with the troops? Can RFK Jr. manage the measles outbreak effectively?

Trump is still dangerous, no doubt. He has flirted with outright defiance of court rulings. He’s used government power to intimidate some law firms, universities and media outlets into making shameful surrenders. He controls Congress and has turned the Republican Party into a gaggle of sycophants who are making hash of the Constitution’s checks and balances.

But there is growing pushback. And we have tools in America that many other failed democracies lacked, like an independent judiciary that has ruled against Trump 70 times since he swore his oath. We have a free press that Trump loathes but can’t stop. We have state governments, with 23 controlled by Democrats. This is not Hungary or Turkey or Iraq — our democracy has deep roots that go back 250 years.

So, as horrifying as this period is, as chaotic and scary as it is, this fight for our democracy is only getting started. And the odds are shifting in its favor.

Moran is a national political columnist for Advance Local and the former editorial page editor/columnist for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. He can be emailed at [email protected].