Alabama among top-25 teams ‘most likely to regress’ in 2023, ESPN analysis states

Alabama among top-25 teams ‘most likely to regress’ in 2023, ESPN analysis states

Alabama will not only have two new coordinators in 2023, Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele, but a host of new starters on both sides of the ball.

In fact, a statistical analysis conducted by ESPN and published Tuesday shows Alabama is losing the ninth-most 2022 production of any of the 133 teams that will participate in FBS football in 2023.

Alabama is returning 40 percent of its production from last season, which ranks 125th in the country. That includes 43 percent of its offensive production — receiving yards, passing yards, rushing yards and offensive line snaps played — coming back, and 38 percent coming back on defense. The defensive number includes tackles, passes defenses, tackles for loss and sacks.

That landed the Tide in ESPN’s “most likely to regress in 2023″ category, which included five total teams from its January “way-too-early” top 25 for the 2023 season that ranked 75th or worse in returning production. The others in that category were TCU, Kansas State, UTSA and Iowa.

Florida State, Texas A&M and Texas were among the teams landing in ESPN’s “most likely to improve in 2023″ category. The Seminoles were No. 4 in ESPN’s “way-too-early” top 25 for 2023, ahead of Alabama at No. 5. The Longhorns, which were No. 16, travel to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama on Sept. 9.

ESPN writer Bill Connelly, who compiled the statistical analysis, was not exactly sounding the alarm about Alabama in 2023.

“I’m not going to pretend to be all that worried about Nick Saban,” he wrote. “He’s still only two seasons removed from fielding his best-ever team (the 2020 rendition), and while Georgia has clearly surpassed the Crimson Tide for now, the Tide still finished second in SP+ in each of the past two seasons.

“That said, Saban is going to be dealing with quite a bit more change than usual in 2023.”

Alabama is facing its most uncertainty at quarterback in several years after Bryce Young’s departure opened a competition primarily between Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson for the job. The Tide is also losing starting running back Jahmyr Gibbs, starting tight end Cameron Latu and three offensive line starters in Tyler Steen, Javion Cohen and Emil Ekiyor.

Defensively, Alabama is losing Will Anderson and his elite production, along with defensive line starters Byron Young and DJ Dale; inside linebacker starters Henry To’o To’o and Jaylen Moody; safety starters Jordan Battle, DeMarcco Hellams and Brian Branch; and cornerback starter Eli Ricks.

Alabama added a pair of transfers, Maryland tight end CJ Dippre and Georgia inside linebacker Trezmen Marshall, and has the No. 1-ranked recruiting class incoming as freshmen.

“Saban’s recruiting success is not even slightly waning, and most of the open on-field roles will be filled by recent blue-chippers who might quickly thrive,” Connelly wrote. “But this is a particularly stout amount of turnover, and there’s a chance the Tide start 2023 as low as, gasp, third or fourth in SP+.”

SP+, which is Connelly’s algorithm for ranking teams that is published by ESPN, had Alabama finishing last season No. 2 behind Georgia despite the Tide having not been selected to the College Football Playoff.

Mike Rodak is an Alabama beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @mikerodak.