Today’s the day that 99% of brackets go straight into the garbage bin. For the Auburn Tigers, however, it’s a day they hope will be the first stepping stone on their way to cutting down the nets in San Antonio.

They’re set to tip off against the No. 16 seed Alabama State Hornets at 2:50 PM EST. The game will air on CBS, with the winner facing the Louisville-Creighton winner in the Second Round.

The best March Madness betting sites favor Auburn as the Tigers are a whopping 31.5 to 32.5-point favorites, depending on the platform. The over/under for the game can be found between 149.5 and 150, according to the latest March Madness odds.

Alabama State vs. Auburn predictions and best bets

• Auburn -31.5: -118 at FanDuel
• Johni Broome Under 20.5 Points: -129 at Caesars
• Over 149.5: -110 at Fanatics

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Alabama State currently ranks 274th in the NET rankings, making them a Quad 4 opponent for Auburn in the first round. The Tigers have faced four teams from that same quadrant and have won by an average of over 41 points, winning by 32 or more three times. Auburn should convincingly handle business here to start their tournament run.

On the topic of Q4 opponents, Johni Broome tends to go under on the box score with limited minutes played. The big man has not scored over 14 points in his four matchups with teams in this quadrant. This could be a line to hammer with a 6-point cushion on that total today.

It only makes sense to look at Alabama State’s success against Q1 opponents after discussing Auburn’s success against Q4 opponents so much. This season, Alabama State’s lowest scoring total was 59 against teams from the top two quadrants.

Add that to the Tigers’ average of over 94 points against Q4 opponents, and the total comes out to 163. The math isn’t perfect, but it’s worth taking a 13-point mulligan to get the over.

Alabama State vs. Auburn moneyline analysis

Why Auburn could win as the favorite

Best odds: -8000 at DraftKings

It shouldn’t take much to convince you that the Tigers will win today, as you can see by the -8000 line. Auburn was given the top tournament seed by the selection committee and is viewed by oddsmakers as the second most likely to win the tournament.

Aside from the public perception, the Tigers are also a proven team. They had the second-strongest strength of schedule but also handled business against lower-rated teams. Auburn went 12-0 against teams outside Quadrant 1 during the regular season, while Alabama State was 0-6 against teams in the top two quads.

The Tigers are led by Broome, who’s dominant in the paint, averaging 18.9 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Unlike other teams that may rely too heavily on their star in the post, Auburn has five additional players on the roster that average nine or more points to help keep its offense balanced.

Auburn is also in the clear from the historical trends of an upset. No team with a combined KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 27 or lower has lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament– Auburn’s combined ranking is 14.

Why Alabama State could win as the underdog

Best odds: +7000 at FanDuel

Following a 70-68 victory over Saint Francis (PA), the Hornets have made it into the first round for their shot at taking down the Goliath. It shouldn’t be understated just how much a First Four game can help build momentum for a team.

The No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson that took down Purdue also had a play-in-game victory over Texas Southern before their momentous upset in 2023.

Alabama State has won 11 of its last 12 games and will get its best opportunity against an Auburn squad that has dropped three of its previous four.

The Hornets are led by their star guard trio of Amarr Knox, C.J. Hines, and TJ Madlock, who all put forth double digits in the team’s win on Tuesday. Madlock is the son of Alabama State’s head coach, Tony Madlock, who is in his second year with the program.

A team soaring with confidence against a program that’s been slipping in play entering the tournament sounds excellent on paper, but Alabama State has its work cut out for them. But if you want to pull off an upset of this caliber, you’ll have to work against the odds.