How Auburn has the edge over Alabama in historic basketball matchup

Get your popcorn ready. Buckle up, perhaps. This weekend’s matinee could be both a show and a wild ride.

Auburn men’s basketball, ranked No. 1 in the AP top 25 and No. 2 in the coaches poll, will face Alabama men’s basketball, ranked No. 2 in the AP top 25 and No. 1 in the coaches poll, in the most significant regular-season game in conference history. That’s not hyperbole. This game marks the first time two SEC teams ranked the top two in the country will face off.

“We’ll see Saturday who’s the best team in the country I guess,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said Tuesday. “Do we think we’re the best team in the country? I think we’ve got a chance to be. Auburn’s the best team in the country right now. We’ve got to knock them out on Saturday if we want to claim to be the best team in the country.”

We’ll soon have an answer which team is better based on the game result, but until then, which squad seems to have the advantage?

Before the game Saturday (3 p.m., ESPN) at Coleman Coliseum, AL.com is examining how the teams stack up, in two parts.

Here we’ll look at how the Tigers have an edge over the Crimson Tide. Also check AL.com for the post that shows the ways Alabama has an edge over Auburn.

All of the following statistics are provided via KenPom as of Wednesday afternoon.

Auburn’s advantages on offense

Auburn’s offense is only slightly more efficient than Alabama’s, but it’s close. The Tigers have the nation’s top offense in adjusted efficiency while Alabama sits at No. 2. Auburn scores 130.7 points per 100 possessions; Alabama scores 127 points per 100 possessions.

Other ways the Tigers have the advantage: turnover percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage, block percentage and steal percentage.

The Tigers also shoot better from deep (37.2% compared to 34.4% for the Crimson Tide) and at the free-throw line (74.1% compared to Alabama’s 71.3%).

Alabama prioritizes shots in this order: Free-throws, layups and 3-pointers. Those are the most efficient shots. Auburn having the advantage in two of three is significant.

Auburn turns the ball over much less than Alabama, and less than most teams. The Tigers have a turnover rate (turnovers divided by possessions) of 13.4%, which ranks 7th nationally. Alabama, meanwhile, has a turnover rate of 17.7%, ranked 210th.

The Tigers have a non-steal turnover rate of 4.5%, ranked 2nd. Alabama’s at 7.2%, ranked 134th.

“We’ve got to fix the turnovers,” Oats said after the Georgia game. “It’s a major problem.”

Turnovers haven’t kept Alabama from winning most of the time, but they could be the difference maker in a game where every possession matters such as this one. Auburn has the clear advantage in terms of taking care of the ball and not giving away possessions.

Auburn forward Johni Broome (4), center Dylan Cardwell (44), guard Miles Kelly (13), guard Tahaad Pettiford (0), head coach Bruce Pearl and guard Denver Jones (2) celebrate after an NCAA college basketball game against Houston Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in Houston. (AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox)AP

Auburn’s advantages on defense

Auburn has a better defense than Alabama. At least that’s what the analytics say.

The Tigers allow 94.7 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 17th nationally. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide gives up 98 points per 100 possessions, ranked 39th. Both good, but Auburn has the edge.

The Tigers defend two-point shots better, with a 45% rate allowed, 15th in the nation. Alabama still is solid in defending two-point shots (47.2%) but not at the same high level as Auburn.

Another notable area where the Tigers thrive: Blocked shots. The 17.9% rate of blocking shots ranks No. 3 in the country. Alabama blocks shots at a rate of 11.1%, which is still good. But it ranks No. 91 nationally.

Johni Broome

Auburn forward Johni Broome (4) and guard Denver Jones (2) celebrate during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Vanderbilt, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)AP

A few personnel notes where Auburn has an edge

Why that block percentage is so good? Auburn has Johni Broome, the national player of the year candidate.

His block rate of 10.2% ranks 19th nationally among all players. The 6-10, 240-pound senior is No. 2 in KenPom’s player of the year standings, ranked behind only Duke’s Cooper Flag.

Alabama doesn’t have a player in the vicinity of Broome’s block rate. The closest is Clifford Omoruyi at 5.8%, about half of Broome’s.

The Tigers also have a few elite offensive rebounders. Broome is one; his offensive rebounding percentage is 15.4%, ranked No. 23 nationally. Dylan Cardwell is another; the 6-11 player has an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.1%. That ranks No. 30 nationally.

One note: Alabama doesn’t want Auburn’s Chad Baker-Mazara at the free-throw line in crucial moments. He’s one of the best from the charity stripe in the country. He’s made 78 of 87 attempts (89.7%), which ranks 43rd among all players. Alabama’s Mark Sears is the closest player on Alabama’s roster at 83.8%, which ranks 184th.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.