SEC Bracket Watch 2025: Tigers, Tide sit on No. 1 seed line with big matchup looming

Eight days from now, Auburn and Alabama will play in what arguably, is the biggest game in the history of the Iron Bowl of Basketball. Quite possibly, the first of a potential four matchups could pit the No. 1 vs. No. 2 teams in the country.

It’s eight days, a long eight days that that players, fans, media and ordinary Alabamians will have a ton of questions. It’s my hope that they can be answered here in this latest bracket watch.

Question 1: How close is Alabama to the No. 1 overall seed spot?

As of this point, the Crimson Tide aren’t too far away from being in the discussion. However, Auburn and Duke seem to have created a gap between them and everyone else with Alabama leading a group that includes Tennessee, Houston and others.

If Alabama were to be in the discussion, one thing that would help is beating the Auburn Tigers next Saturday but also hoping Florida beats Auburn this Saturday.

Question 2: Why Auburn over Duke for the No. 1 overall seed spot?

On Dec. 4, Duke handed Auburn an 84-78 loss inside Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Auburn Tigers haven’t lost since and have boosted their resume with a combination of an 11-game win streak, and having nine of those wins in the toughest conference in America.

When you look at the metrics, it leans toward Auburn as well:

NET: 1. Auburn, 2. Duke

Strength of Record: 1. Auburn, 3. Duke

Wins Above Bubble: 1. Auburn, 4. Duke

Quad I wins: Auburn-12, Duke-5

Games to watch

Duke at Clemson (Feb. 8)

If Tennessee and Alabama each want a shot at moving up in the No. 1 seed race, they’ll need help from Clemson who gets a Duke team that hasn’t lost in ACC play this season.

Tennessee at Oklahoma (Feb. 8)

While Tennessee is in the race to maintain a No. 1 seed spot, Oklahoma is in desperate need of a win. They’ve only got four Quad I victories and sitting at 3-6 in the league. While they’re probably in the NCAAs if the season ended today, they’ve still got some work to do. A win here certainly boosts those chances.

South Carolina at Kentucky (Feb. 8)

After a hot start, the Kentucky Wildcats have cooled off as of late, losing four out of their last five games. Luckily, they get the gift of a winless in SEC play South Carolina on Saturday.

Florida at Auburn (Feb. 8)

Auburn hosts Florida team that’s beaten a top 10 Tennessee team by 30 but also lost to that same Tennessee team by 20. So, this game might not be about Auburn, as much as it might be about a Florida team that has looked very good (and very bad) vs. the league’s best.

Alabama at Arkansas (Feb. 8)

Arkansas is most likely not going to make the NCAA tournament, unless they win the SEC basketball tournament. A win vs. Alabama probably revives some tournament hopes, faint tournament hopes. But hopes, nonetheless.

Top 16 overall seeds (2/7/25)

(overall seed ranking in parentheses)

South Region

  1. Auburn (1)
  2. Michigan State (8)
  3. Iowa State (9)
  4. St. John’s (16)

East Region

  1. Duke (2)
  2. Florida (7)
  3. Wisconsin (12)
  4. Texas A&M (13)

Midwest Region

  1. Alabama (3)
  2. Houston (5)
  3. Purdue (11)
  4. Oregon (15)

West Region

  1. Tennessee (4)
  2. Marquette (6)
  3. Kansas (10)
  4. Mississippi State (14)