Groundhog Day 2025 prediction is out: How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil, other furry forecasters?
Groundhog Day can be a love-it-or-hate-it occasion for human forecasters.
But NOAA forecasters have decided to have some fun with Groundhog Day in 2025.
NOAA took it upon itself to rate the groundhog forecasters — and others — from across the nation to see which one had the best record for predicting early springs or six more weeks of winter.
NOAA selected 19 groundhogs “and alternative groundhogs” to face off, but they had to meet two qualifications:
* They must have been prognosticating for at least 20 years.
* They must be active prognosticators as of Feb. 2, 2024.
NOAA graded and ranked the groundhogs’ accuracy using March temperature averages for the U.S. each year from 2005 to 2024.
Here are the top five:
No. 1: Staten Island Chuck — 85 percent accuracy
Staten Island Chuck lives in New York City’s Staten Island Zoo, where he is described as the resident groundhog. He may be best known for biting New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2009. Chuck has predicted an early spring every year since 2015. He has 29 total forecasts under his belt.
On Sunday Chuck stayed true to form and predicted an early spring for 2025.
No. 2: General Beauregard Lee — 80 percent accuracy
Gen. Beauregard Lee is known as Georgia’s “Official Weather Prognosticator” as well as the principal prognosticator for the southern U.S., according to Groundhog-day.com. He resides in his own groundhog mansion at Dauset Trails Nature Center in Jackson, Ga. Gen. Lee has 41 forecasts on his resume, going back to 1982. He’s predicted an early spring for the past four years. In fact, of his 41 forecasts, he’s only predicted a longer winter four times.
However, Gen. Lee’s 2025 forecast, issued on Sunday morning, is for six more weeks of winter.
No. 3: Lander Lil — 75 percent accuracy
Lander Lil is not a groundhog at all. And it’s not even alive. Lander is a bronze statue of a prairie dog in Lander, Wyoming (who was a real prairie dog). According to Groundhog-day.com Lander Lil has been predicting the weather for Wyoming since 1984. In the past five years, Lil has leaned more toward winter weather, predicting a later spring three times. However, of Lil’s 27 forecasts, an early spring has won out 16 times.
Lil’s prediction for 2025 hasn’t been announced yet as of early Sunday morning.
No. 4 (tie): Concord Charlie —65 percent accuracy
Concord Charlie has never actually been seen — but he’s presumed to be a groundhog from Athens, W.Va. According to Groundhog-day.com, since 1978 Charlie has met annually with the President of Concord University and relayed his predictions. Charlie has made 47 predictions since 1979 — 18 of those for six more weeks of winter.
However, Charlie has predicted an early spring for 2025.
No. 4 (tie): Gertie the Groundhog — 65 percent accuracy
Gertie the Groundhog is from Wildlife Prairie State Park in Illinois. Gertie has been predicting the weather since 1993 and has even inspired a hit song, “Wake-Up Gertie.” Gertie predicted an early spring in 2024. According to Groundhog-day.com, Gertie has made 31 predictions since 1993. Ten were for six more weeks of winter, 21 were for an early spring, and two predictions were missing.
Gertie’s 2025 prediction wasn’t yet available as of early Sunday morning.
Honorable mention — Punxsutawney Phil
One can’t forget the original, Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog on the list. Phil has been making predictions from Gobbler’s Knob since 1887.
But, according to NOAA’s rankings, Phil comes in at No. 17 of the 19 ranked and has an accuracy rating of only 35 percent. However, Phil has the most predictions, 129. He predicted an early spring in 2024 but has predicted six more weeks of winter 108 times. (11 of Phil’s predictions went unrecorded.)
This year, Phil has predicted six more weeks of winter:
By the way, NOAA forecasters are predicting what could be called an early spring as well — at least for Alabama. The three-month temperature outlook, shown at the top of this post, is predicting warmer-than-average temperatures for the state over the next three months.
Here’s a look at Phil’s predictions over the past few years.NOAA