Sunday’s loaded slate of NFL Wild Card action ends at Raymond James Stadium where the Buccaneers host the Commanders.

Tampa Bay welcomed QB Jayden Daniels to the NFL by handing the rookie a 37-20 loss in Week 1. Daniels has developed significantly since then, and Washington is only a 3-point road underdog in the rematch.

Both teams rank in the top 5 of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses, and oddsmakers have appropriately set the over/under at 50.5. Check below for my Commanders versus Buccaneers Wild Card round betting picks.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers predictions and best bets

• Buccaneers -3: -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
• Jalen McMillan anytime touchdown scorer: +170 at BetMGM Sportsbook

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Betting trends show these teams are evenly matched. The Commanders are 10-6-1 against the spread, and the Buccaneers are 10-7. However, history points to fading first-year quarterbacks in the playoffs. Since 1990, rookie QBs are 5-14 on the road in postseason games, including seven straight losses.

Daniels has exceeded all expectations, and getting the Commanders to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 is quite impressive. However, Washington’s defense has been its Achilles’ heel, and it’ll bite them again in the playoffs.

The Commanders have faced six teams with above .500 records and allowed at least 26 points each time. Washington surrenders the third-most rushing yards per game, creating an opportunity for RB Bucky Irving to go off. Irving leads all rookies with 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns.

Baker Mayfield gave the Commanders fits in Week 1, and the same is likely to happen in the Wild Card round. Mayfield has passed for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, and one of his favorite red zone targets is WR Jalen McMillan.

McMillan wasn’t an impact player to start the year but came on strong in the second half. The rookie has the second-most touchdowns on the team, including touchdowns in the past five games. Getting his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +170 comes with terrific value.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers moneyline odds analysis

Why the Buccaneers could win as the favorite

Best odds: -150 at Fanatics Sportsbook

The Buccaneers have won six of the last seven games, and the offense is hitting its stride at the perfect time. Since the Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay has scored 32 points per game. Mike Evans is still a game-changer and recorded 1,000+ receiving yards for an NFL-record tying 11th-consecutive season.

Daniels has been sacked 18 times in the last four games, and the Bucs’ defense will be ready to capitalize. Tampa Bay has the seventh-moth sacks in the NFL, so keeping Daniels in the pocket is crucial.

Why the Commanders could win as the underdog

Best odds: +142 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Washington is 2-1 in primetime games, while Tampa Bay is 0-4. The Buccaneers give up the fourth-most passing yards per game, and WR Terry McLaurin should have a big day. WR Olamide Zaccheaus is another player to watch after posting 50+ yards in three straight games.

Daniels’ ability to create plays with his legs will be a deciding factor because Tampa Bay has the second-highest blitz rate in the league. Luckily, Daniels handles the blitz well, throwing 12 touchdowns and one interception against extra pass rushers. If nobody is open, he can also add to his 891 rushing yards.