Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow Tuesday morning, signaling six more weeks of winter.

But, other than the general craziness of relying on a groundhog to predict the weather, just how correct is Phil? That is, how accurate are his yearly weather predictions?

The idea of Groundhog Day dates back more than 130 years and is pretty simple: If Phil emerges from his burrow in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and sees his shadow, that means there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, that signals an early spring.

READ MORE: Groundhog Day 2023 weather prediction: What does it mean if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow?

Phil’s accuracy is up for debate, however.

According to Stormfax.com, Phil has seen his shadow 108 times compared to 20 times with no shadow. There’s no record of nine of his predictions. Based on those numbers, Phil has only been correct about 39% of the time. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts that number only slightly higher at 40% over the last decade.

NOAA does cut Phil some slack, however, pointing out predicting the weather can be tricky business.

“Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country, especially one with such varied regional climates as the United States, isn’t easy!,” NOAA said. “Phil’s track record is evidence of that.”

Per USA Today, here are Phil’s most recent predictions:

· 2013: No Shadow

· 2014: Shadow

· 2015: Shadow

· 2016: No Shadow

· 2017: Shadow

· 2018: Shadow

· 2019: No Shadow

· 2020: No Shadow

· 2021: Shadow

· 2022: Shadow