The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) and Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) square off tonight in 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl for the right to play for the National Championship Game.

Notre Dame comes into this matchup riding a 12-game winning streak, while Penn State’s only losses were to Ohio State and Oregon by a combined 15 points.

If you are new to the sports betting world or would like to refresh what you’ve already learned, please check out our College Football Playoff betting guide. Read on as me as I share my best Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions and prop bets for Thursday, January 9.

Riley Leonard Over 45.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -130 at Fanatics Sportsbook

The Penn State Nittany Lions’ defense allowed 101 rushing yards per game this season. That number ballooned to 111 rushing yards per night against the Top 25.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish rushing offense is all about the ground game, and I anticipate dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard having a huge game. Leonard rushed for the second-most yards on Notre Dame (836).

Without running back Jerimiyah Love at full strength, Leonard will have to lead the Irish, and I believe he will. Leonard rushed for 46+ in nine of his previous 13 games, including 80 yards without Love last week against a good Georgia Bulldogs’ defense.

The Notre Dame signal-caller scampered for 144 yards on 33 attempts against nationally ranked opponents, and I like him to clear his rushing total on Fanatics board.

Drew Allar Under 193.5 passing yards

Best odds: -117 at Caesars Sportsbook

Penn State likes to sling the football, and why not? Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar is the reason they throw the pill. The junior quarterback is 19th nationally in passing yards (3,192), but he has a tall order to sling the football for 194+ passing yards on Thursday.

That’s because the Fighting Irish defense is stout. They surrendered a stingy 158 passing yards on 6.3 yards per passing attempt against nationally ranked teams like Penn State. Allar won’t clear his Caesars’ prop number for a lack of trying. Penn State throws the football maybe a bit too much, but it’s what they do and Allar has been the man this season.

The Medina, Ohio, native has failed to sling for more than 194 passing yards in three of his past five. Allar boasts a 67.7% completion rate but hasn’t cleared 60% in any of his previous three contests.

Jaden Greathouse Over 10.5 receiving yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Leonard and the Fighting Irish don’t necessarily rely on the passing game, but the Notre Dame signal-caller typically attempts 20+ passes.

Leonard will likely take to the air at least that many times tonight, and sophomore wideout Jaden Greathouse has been a reliable receiver. The sophomore is third on the team in receptions and has at least one reception in all 13 Fighting Irish games.

He faces a Penn State secondary that has surrendered 230 passing yards and a 63% completion rate to nationally ranked-teams. Greathouse should be able to make a play or two, and if he does, he’ll clear his FanDuel receiving yards prop.