There will be no incumbent in Alabama’s race for governor in 2026, a factor that some observers say throws the election wide open.

The campaign will also coincide with President-elect Donald Trump, at the peak of his popularity and power, embracing mavericks like Elon Musk to shake up the establishment in Washington.

Do those conditions open the door for a political outsider, a successful entrepreneur, for example, to make a serious run for governor and challenge the Montgomery establishment in 2026?

“Without a sitting governor or a former governor, somebody with that kind of profile, that factor alone creates more of a political vacuum than you would have had in a typical governor’s race, almost all of them, in the last two generations,” said Jess Brown, retired political science professor from Athens State University.

Brown said he has not heard of any specific names but said they could emerge from the business world or from athletics, such as a former football player at Alabama or Auburn.

U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville rode his name recognition as the former Auburn coach and his support for Trump to election to the U.S. Senate in his first political race in 2020.

“Is the field open and do we have an environment here where you could have an outsider that could gain traction?” Brown said. “The answer to that is yes.”

‘Being a newcomer is an advantage’

Richard Fording, a political science professor at the University of Alabama, noted that eight current governors were elected without holding any previous political office, citing information from the Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University.

“The 2026 Alabama governor’s race is certainly wide open, and I would not be surprised at all if a political newcomer makes a strong run,” Fording said in an email. “I think Donald Trump’s success has certainly helped make prior political experience less relevant these days.”

Fording said the appeal of political outsiders is not necessarily new. Ross Perot, a technology company founder from Texas, got almost 20 million votes, 19% of the total, as an independent candidate for president in 1992.

“Since Perot, and definitely since the election of Trump in 2016, there has been a steady increase in distrust of government,” Fording said, citing polling by Gallup. “For many voters now, being a newcomer is an advantage.”

But Angi Horn, a Republican political consultant who ran Robert Bentley’s successful campaign for governor in 2010, says history shows Alabama voters prefer governors with political experience.

“It’s not for lack of trying,” Horn said. “There have been people without government experience but with business success that have tried repeatedly to run for governor.

“People have shown over and over that they want that experience running the state.”

Horn said Trump connects with voters not so much because he is viewed as an outsider or because of his business success but because he knows what people care about.

“I think what people like about Trump is his ability to say what he thinks about policies,” Horn said. “Yes, he’s a successful business person. But we also don’t have to guess what Donald Trump thinks about anything. It’s not as much the business experience as the policy points that drew people to Trump.

“And I think that’s the same case in Alabama. It’s the people who tend to give specifics about what they believe in and what they’re for and not for as it relates to specific policy positions.”

‘They’re going to start showing their hand’

Next year’s race in Alabama will be the first since 2010 without a popular incumbent. Bentley won reelection in a landslide in 2014.

That was before a scandal involving an alleged affair with an advisor led to his resignation in 2017.

Gov. Kay Ivey, who finished Bentley’s term, trounced her challengers in 2018 and 2022 and is barred by term limits from running again.

Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth, who is also term-limited in his current office, has said he is considering the governor’s race and will make a decision early this year.

Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate has said he might run for governor after two terms in his current office.

Former Alabama Department of Veterans Affairs Commissioner Kent Davis said he is considering a run for governor or possibly another statewide office. Former lawmaker and two-term Secretary of State John Merrill said he will make a decision during the first quarter of this year.

One potential candidate, Attorney General Steve Marshall said last week he won’t run for governor but did not rule out running for another office after completing his second term as AG.

Former state lawmaker and longtime political commentator Steve Flowers said if an outsider is going to make a serious run, voters should begin to hear about that candidate soon.

Flowers noted that the winner of the Republican primary, set for May 26, 2026, is all but certain to be the next governor. So the decisive vote is less than 18 months away. And campaign fundraising officially starts this May, one year before the primary.

“I think if a person is going to do that, be a dark horse or unknown candidate, they’re going to start showing their hand in March or April,” Flowers said. “I think in the next two or three months, you’re going to start seeing them pop in there.”

Another Fob James?

Flowers said when he spoke to civic clubs last year he regularly got questions about the governor’s race, even during the presidential campaign.

He said Alabama voters care about the race and believes they would be receptive to a first-time candidate with a proven track record outside politics.

There is probably no better example of an outsider beating the establishment than Fob James in 1978.

James, a first-time candidate who had built and sold a successful business making weight-lifting equipment, defeated Attorney General Bill Baxley, Lt. Gov. Jere Beasley, and former Gov. Albert Brewer.

“I think they would love to see another Fob James,” Flowers said.

“They would like to see someone that’s a businessman or businesswoman who have made their own money, is successful in business, and I call the Fob James-like candidate. I think that’s what they’re looking for.”

Tim James, Fob James’ son and a former candidate, said voters were ready for a change of course when his father hit the campaign trail.

“Dad hit the nerve like Alabama had never seen against the three Bs,” Tim James said.

“Trump did the same thing. And Trump’s even more remarkable in that the world thought he didn’t have a prayer and then he beat the brains out of all the rest of them, especially in 2016 in the primary.”

Tim James has run for governor three times, including when he challenged Ivey in the 2022 Republican primary and finished third with 16% of the vote.

In 2010, Tim James barely missed the Republican runoff, eventually won by Bentley.

James said he has made no plans about the 2026 race. He does think there is an opening for an outsider.

“I think generally speaking, an outsider, assuming they launch a good campaign and can fight and have the money, is always viable,” James said.

“In Alabama, they just are. And especially in a Republican primary I think that just being an outsider always can have its advantages.”

James said that may be more true now, in the season of Trump, although he said it can be hard for outsiders to raise campaign funds.

“But when there’s no incumbent, it will be a wide open race for the taking, for whoever hits the nerve for where the people of Alabama are at that moment,” James said.

Blanchard vs. Ainsworth?

Flowers said Lindy Blanchard is a potential candidate to watch in the 2026 race.

Blanchard finished second to Ivey in the 2022 Republican primary, with 19% of the vote. Blanchard was U.S. ambassador to Slovenia during Trump’s first term.

Blanchard and her husband built a commercial real estate company. She spent about $11 million during her self-funded campaign in 2022.

“She would probably be as strong a candidate as Ainsworth would be, in my opinion,” Flowers said.

Blanchard told 1819 News in July that she had not decided whether to run in 2026.

Horn, the Republican political consultant who is less optimistic about the chances for an outsider candidate, said Ainsworth would enter the race in a strong position.

“I think that when people talk about the next governor of Alabama, obviously it’s up to the people of Alabama,” Horn said. “But I think most people would widely consider Lt. Gov. Ainsworth to be the odds-on favorite.

“He’s got a record to run on. He’s well-financed in his campaign account. And I think furthermore, he’s a guy that has a policy position.”

Ainsworth has made the widening of Interstate 65 from Tennessee to Mobile a key part of his platform, calling it the No. 1 infrastructure project in the state.

“I think it’s got to get done,” Ainsworth said. “I think it should have been done years ago. And it’s something that’s just a bottleneck.”

Horn said she believes voters are listening.

“Most Alabamians have been stuck on I-65 at some point,” Horn said. “That’s an issue that really does resonate.”

Horn said a first-time candidate would have to show they offer Republican voters a reason to support them over a candidate with a track record, like Ainsworth.

“So you have to run as a Republican with policy positions that differ from the person who is sitting in the lieutenant governor’s chair,” Horn said. “So what are you going to do? Come out and say I-65 is fine?”

“You have to find a Republican position that resonates with the vast majority of Republican voters while at the same time differing from the lieutenant governor,” Horn said. “What is that? I don’t know what that is.”

Brown said speculation that Ainsworth is the frontrunner might turn out to be correct but said some questions remain, such as his ability to win the support of groups such as the Business Council of Alabama, the Alabama Farmers Federation, and Poarch Band of Creek Indians.

“If for some reason they do decide to get behind a candidate, that candidate would have a substantial amount of campaign dollars,” Brown said.

Tuberville for governor?

Brown said an outsider or first-time candidate could get the attention of voters by pointing out some persistent problems with state government.

Examples, Brown said, include costly and long-overdue prison construction projects and the failure to put a lottery proposal on the ballot for voters despite the popularity of the idea.

“I think on state finances, somebody could put together a pretty good case for it’s time for fresh blood in the governor’s office,” Brown said.

A decision by Tuberville to run for governor could be a potential game-changer. But that appears unlikely now with Trump’s election and the Republicans gaining control of the Senate.

Tuberville told CNN in November that he would run for a second term in the Senate and wanted to be part of the Senate majority and help support the Trump agenda.

Flowers said if Tuberville ran for governor he would become the top candidate because he is so well known and generally popular with Republicans.

“I think he would be the frontrunner,” Flowers said. “He’s sitting on 75 to 80% name identification, and it’s pretty positive.”

“He’s got his detractors,” Flowers said. “But most of those detractors are coming from Democratic-leaning voters who are not going to be in that Republican primary anyway.”

Hannah Eddins, Tuberville’s deputy communications director, said Tuesday that there was nothing to add to his statements in November that he would run for the Senate.