An outbreak of severe weather will be possible in parts of Alabama on Saturday, according to forecasters.

The key points, according to the National Weather Service:

* All of the severe weather risks will be on the table today: Tornadoes — some of them strong ones (EF2+) — wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail and flooding rain.

* Storms will be possible as early as this afternoon in west Alabama, but the weather service thinks the “main event” will arrive later this evening into tonight as a line of potentially severe storms approaches from the west.

* NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 4 out of 5 (moderate) risk for severe weather for part of west Alabama today. A larger area in west Alabama has a Level 3 (enhanced risk), and nearly all of the rest of the state has a Level 2 (slight) risk.

* Storms are expected to be the most intense in the Level 4 risk area in west Alabama. Forecasters believe they could begin to lose some intensity as they head eastward during the overnight hours, but severe weather will be possible in east Alabama as well.

* Since storms are expected to affect much of the state overnight, it is important to make sure you have a reliable way to receive warnings overnight — warnings that will wake you if needed.

THE DETAILS

The forecast for Alabama has trended in a bad direction overnight, with an expansion of the risk for severe weather to include the entire state.

This comes just hours after southwest Alabama, including the Mobile metro area, was hit by severe storms and flash flooding on Friday, several of which produced tornado warnings and some damage. The weather service will conduct storm surveys when possible to confirm if tornadoes touched down.

The Storm Prediction Center has added a rarely-used Level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms for an area in west Alabama for today.

A Level 4 risk means that numerous severe storms are likely, including some strong, long-track tornadoes.

Storms could come in two rounds starting later today, according to the weather service.

The weather service said Round 1 will likely be isolated supercells moving into west Alabama beginning in the late afternoon hours and lasting into the evening hours.

Round 2 will arrive during the evening and last into the overnight hours. Forecasters are thinking a broken line of supercells will track across the area from west to east. The weather service thinks these storms could bring the greater tornado threat of the two rounds, but tornadoes will be possible with both.

Forecasters will be watching the evolution of rain and storms over the state this morning, because those could potentially affect the intensity of this afternoon’s storms.

The weather service in Mobile said “this morning’s ongoing showers and storms may tamper with the environment ahead of the next more potent round of storms.” More rain could lead to a lessened severe weather threat.

However, the weather service in Birmingham said “forecast guidance has trended towards the direction of less warm sector contamination this afternoon, so a decent amount of instability (for this time of year) could carry over into the overnight hours as the main line of storms moves into the area, and as dynamics become more favorable for tornadoes, especially west of I-65.”

In addition to storms, there will be the potential for flash flooding, especially in southwest Alabama. Some of that region got 3 to 6 inches of rain on Friday as a wave of severe storms moved through the area.

An additional 2 to 3 inches will be possible with today’s storms. Here’s the rainfall outlook from the weather service:

In addition, according to the weather service, coastal areas could face minor flooding this afternoon and evening around high tide in the northern part of Mobile Bay.

There will also be a high risk of rip currents and a high surf advisory.

The rain will move out from west to east on Sunday, but the Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a risk for severe storms in east Alabama on Sunday morning.

Here is the severe weather outlook for Sunday:

Here’s more from the National Weather Service for the different regions in Alabama:

NORTH ALABAMA

CENTRAL ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMA