Year 1 in the SEC didn’t go as planned for Oklahoma. If the Sooners fall short against Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl, it’ll be OU’s second losing season since 1998.

Drawing the Midshipmen is a tough matchup for an Oklahoma squad dealing with an overload of transfer portal departures and opt-outs. While the Sooners scramble to formulate a game plan with unproven players, Navy is riding the high of shellacking Army a few weeks ago.

The Midshipmen will be at full strength but are still slight underdogs in the Armed Forces Bowl. Read on to see my expert betting picks for Oklahoma versus Navy.

Oklahoma vs. Navy predictions and best bets

• Navy +2.5: -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
• Oklahoma team total under 23.5: -120 at Caesars Sportsbook
• Blake Horvath over 77.5 rushing yards: -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

According to TeamRankings, Navy is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and 3-1 as single-digit underdogs. Transfer portal exits and opt-outs are forcing Oklahoma to give less experienced players expanded roles, and that’s the last thing you want against a triple-option team.

Scoring has been a struggle for the Sooners. I expect that to continue without QB Jackson Arnold, TE Bauer Sharp, WR J.J. Hester, RB Jovantae Barnes and others. Arnold was the starter for most of the season. Backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. will be under center against Navy.

When Arnold played poorly early in the year, Hawkins Jr. stepped in before a relegation back to the bench. Hawkins Jr. is an inconsistent passer, and he’s now asked to command an offense missing three of its top four pass catchers.

Hawkins Jr. is mobile, but the Sooners’ depleted WR corps should allow Navy to take an aggressive approach to limiting his rushing opportunities. I expect Oklahoma’s offense to sputter, while the Midshipmen lean on QB Blake Horvath to chew clock and control time of possession.

Horvath’s 1,099 rushing yards are the fourth most among QBs; he averages nearly 100 yards per game. The Sooners are without key starters on defense, which should help Horvath surpass his rushing prop.

Oklahoma vs. Navy moneyline odds analysis

Why Oklahoma could win as the favorite

Best odds: -135 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Armed Forces Bowl takes place at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. The three-hour drive from Norman, OK should give Oklahoma a major advantage in fan attendance.

Expect top effort from Hawkins Jr., who can use the Armed Forces Bowl as an audition to be the Sooners starter in 2025. Before all the transfers and opt-outs, Oklahoma’s offense ranked last in the SEC in passing yards per game. Hawkins Jr.’s ability to make plays with his legs is a saving grace, considering the Sooners have no pass catchers with more than 300 yards.

Head coach Brent Venables is defensive-minded and should have a solid plan of attack against the triple option. Even with a downsized roster, Oklahoma still has more talent on its sideline. The final score will come down to how the fresh faces perform and how quickly the defense adjusts to an unfamiliar scheme.

Why Navy could win as the underdog

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Horvath had four total touchdowns and 204 rushing yards in the Midshipmen’s win over Army. Navy’s defense was equally dominant, forcing three turnovers and holding the Black Knights to less than 200 total yards. Both sides of the ball should play with added confidence heading into the matchup with Oklahoma.

Stopping the triple option can be difficult, especially when a team is missing two of its top players. All-American LB Danny Stutsman led the Sooners with 110 tackles and safety Billy Bowman Jr. was fourth. Both have left the team to prepare for the NFL Draft, and the Sooners’ defense will sorely miss their veteran presence.