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Our expert guide on how to bet the College Football Playoff: First-round predictions, picks and best bets

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Most fans reacted positively when the College Football Playoff expansion was announced in 2022. The first round is finally here, and it’s time to see whether the new format lives up to the hype.

One of the most exciting features of the 12-team playoff is round-one games on college campuses. Games played at neutral sites don’t come close to matching the crowd energy of home matchups, and home-field advantage is a key factor to remember before placing your first-round wagers.

Below, I’ll explain the ins and outs of the new College Football Playoff. Then, I’ll go through the odds for round one and give my expert betting advice for this weekend’s games and future matchups. Let’s dive in.

Everything to know about betting the new 12-team CFP

The CFP began in 2015, and up until 2024, only four teams earned a spot in the playoff. For the first time, we’ll see a 12-team field battle it out for the national championship. Teams that deserved a chance to compete for the title were left out during the four-team era, and that’s no longer the case.

The most significant rule change is the five highest-ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids to the playoff. The selection committee then rewards the four highest-ranked conference champions with first-round byes.

The teams that earned a bye this season are No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State. While those squads get a pass to the quarterfinal, we’ll see these matchups unfold on campuses in the first round:

  • No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame: 7 p.m. CST Friday
  • No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State: 11 a.m. CST Saturday
  • No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas: 3 p.m. CST Saturday
  • No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State: 7 p.m. CST Saturday

College Football Playoff first-round odds

Notre Dame (11-1) was on the wrong end of an upset against Northern Illinois but won its remaining matchups and earned the highest average scoring margin in FBS, per TeamRankings.

Indiana’s (11-1) average point differential ranks third, but the Hoosiers’ only ranked matchup resulted in a 38-15 loss at Ohio State. Time will tell how Indiana handles its next clash with a championship contender.

SMU (11-2) barely snuck into the playoff, while Penn State (11-2) earned the No. 4 spot in the final CFP rankings. Because of conference champions earning first-round byes, the Nittany Lions fell to the No. 6 seed.

There’s been a lot of speculation on southern schools being negatively impacted by cold weather in northern games, and it may be a factor in this matchup. The Weather Channel calls for a high of 28 degrees at Beaver Stadium on Saturday. Josh Pate’s College Football Show reports the average temperature at kickoff for SMU games was 72 degrees this season.

Texas (11-2) is a heavy favorite but didn’t beat any of the teams in the top 25 of the final CFP rankings. The Longhorns had two chances to take down Georgia and failed both times.

The final CFP rankings placed Clemson (10-3) at No. 16, but an ACC championship victory got the Tigers in the playoff. Clemson is 0-2 against SEC opponents and faces the longest odds for a round-one upset.

Both teams have the potential to win the national championship, but only one can leave Ohio Stadium with a victory. Tennessee (10-2) and Ohio State (10-2) have lockdown defenses, making offensive execution the biggest X-factor.

The play calling was questionable when the Buckeyes lost to Michigan, and Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava has been up and down this season. With temperatures projected at 17 degrees Saturday night in Columbus, it will be interesting to see if the cold limits scoring.

How to bet the CFP first round

*Note: Betting on college football player props is not available in AZ, CO, IA, LA, ME, MD, MA, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA and VT.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions and best bets

Both teams have been printing money for bettors this season. According to TeamRankings, Indiana is 9-3 against the spread, and Notre Dame is 9-2-1.

The Hoosiers allow the fewest rushing yards per game in FBS but haven’t faced a rushing attack like Notre Dame’s. The Fighting Irish will lean on QB Riley Leonard and RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who combined for 2,321 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns. Love has gone for 99 yards or more in four of the last five games and should have another strong performance on deck.

SMU vs. Penn State predictions and best bets

According to CFBStats.com, SMU takes the fourth-most penalty yards per game in FBS. Those numbers won’t improve at the third-largest stadium in college football.

Despite losing to Oregon in the Big Ten championship, Penn State’s offense was on fire. The Nittany Lions had 523 total yards and scored five touchdowns. The Mustangs’ defense has been weak against the pass, and I expect QB Drew Allar to take advantage. His favorite target is TE Tyler Warren, who leads Penn State in receiving yards and has 10 total touchdowns.

Clemson vs. Texas predictions and best bets

Betting the under is 15-9-2 in Clemson and Texas games. Tigers QB Cade Klubnik has thrown 33 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Regression seems imminent against a defense that’s allowed only four passing touchdowns. I expect Clemson to stay within striking distance but lose the game.

I find it difficult to trust the Longhorns to cover a big spread versus a quality opponent. Texas has scored 20 points or fewer in three of the past four games, and the Tigers should be playing with added confidence after a thrilling ACC championship victory.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day never has beaten an SEC team (0-3), and the Buckeyes are 2-8 in their last 10 games against the conference. Tennessee’s defense gives up the fifth-fewest points in FBS, which will help the Volunteers stay within the spread.

Ohio State’s run defense has been stellar, but Michigan trounced the Buckeyes for 172 yards. RB Dylan Sampson has the eighth-most rushing yards in FBS and has gained at least 100 yards in all but two games. If Sampson can pound away at the Buckeyes’ defense, things should open up through the air for Iamaleava.

College Football Playoff exact matchup prediction

This bet type is obviously much harder to predict now that the playoff has moved from four teams to 12. Luckily, a small wager on an exact matchup prop can land a solid payout thanks to the long-shot odds.

Here’s my favorite exact matchup bet for the CFP:

Oregon vs. Penn State

Best odds: +750 at BetMGM

The Ducks earned the No. 1 spot in the CFP rankings for a reason. Oregon is the only undefeated team in college football, won the Big Ten championship and has impressive wins over Ohio State and Penn State.

Head coach Dan Lanning’s squad doesn’t have glaring weaknesses on offense. The offensive line was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award, and QB Dillon Gabriel makes quick, accurate throws to top-tier WRs Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden. Then, there’s RB Jordan James, who ranks top three in Big Ten rushing yards and touchdowns.

The defense isn’t elite but has playmakers such as DE Matayo Uiagalelei (10.5 sacks), DE Jordan Burch (8.5 sacks) and DB Jabbar Muhammad (11 passes defended). Oregon’s high-scoring offense doesn’t require shutdown performances from the defense.

Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame are the favorites to win the other side of the bracket. I’m taking the Nittany Lions to advance to the championship because of concerns about the QB situation with the Bulldogs and Fighting Irish.

Georgia QB Carson Beck suffered an injury in the SEC championship, and his status for the CFP is uncertain. If Beck is unavailable, sophomore QB Gunner Stockton will make his first career start in the quarterfinal.

Notre Dame relies heavily on its run game, and if a defense shuts that down, I don’t trust Leonard to move the ball through the air. Leonard averages 174 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions.

College Football Playoff winner best bet

Oregon

Best odds: +360 at DraftKings

The rest advantage skews heavily in Oregon’s favor. The Ducks had a bye in the second-to-last week of the regular season and earned a first-round bye in the CFP. They’ll also have a short trip to the Rose Bowl for the quarterfinal against Tennessee or Ohio State.

The national championship odds suggest Oregon will face Texas in the semifinal, and the Longhorns’ defense will be a tough matchup. However, the Ducks’ deep cast of playmakers presents challenges for any opponent. Gabriel rarely misses deep passes, and it’s hard to rattle the 23-year-old. No QB in FBS history has started more games than Gabriel.

If Oregon faces Penn State in the national championship, we’ve already seen the Ducks’ offense torch the Nittany Lions in a 45-37 victory. If Georgia or Notre Dame advance to the title game, either team would have trouble matching Oregon’s scoring.

Long shot bets to win the College Football Playoff

A few teams with long-shot odds have first-round byes, which could put you in a spot to hedge your bet and earn a profit or ride your future wager for as long as possible. Here are some teams to consider:

Indiana

Best odds: +4000 at BetMGM

Is Indiana being judged too harshly by the Ohio State loss? The Hoosiers fell short in their only matchup with a CFP contender but blew out many teams on their schedule. Just because Indiana failed to meet the standard in its lone meeting with an elite team doesn’t mean the Hoosiers can’t make the most of the next matchup against Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish have a tough defense, and an opening-round upset by Indiana would be extremely impressive. One thing that’s common with most national championship-winning teams is a veteran QB, and the Hoosiers have that with Kurtis Rourke. In his sixth season, Rourke helped Indiana score the second-most points per game in FBS.

Statistically, the Hoosiers’ defense looks elite but had a poor showing against Ohio State. If the defense can make an impact at the line of scrimmage against opponents such as Notre Dame and Georgia, Indiana could be a valuable bet slip to have in your account.

Tennessee

Best odds: +2500 at DraftKings

Facing Ohio State on the road is a difficult matchup in round one. The Buckeyes have stars on both sides of the ball, but injuries have turned OSU’s offensive line into a potential weakness. Tennessee’s defensive line is outstanding and could help carry the Volunteers to a national championship run.

Unlike past Tennessee teams that constantly air it out on offense, this year’s team is built through the trenches on both sides of the ball. Sampson is one of the most reliable ball carriers in the nation, and Iamaleava must show more consistency as a passer to help Tennessee reach its full potential.