One year after their College Football Playoff meeting, Alabama and Michigan will put a cap on their 2024-25 seasons when they square off in the ReliaQuest Bowl — formerly the Outback Bowl — on Dec. 31 in Tampa, Fla.

For Michigan, it’s a satisfying end to a transition season following the 2023-24 CFP national championship. The Wolverines (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had to replace significant talent from last season’s team. After some ups and downs, Michigan ended the regular season with a fourth consecutive win over arch-rival Ohio State.

Alabama (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) had bigger hopes in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season. The Crimson Tide hoped to be selected for the inaugural 12-team CFP field but were left out. The Crimson Tide are 10.5-point favorites over Michigan. The over/under is 43 or 43.5 points. Here are our Alabama vs. Michigan predictions and best bets for the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Alabama vs. Michigan predictions and best bets

• Alabama: -10.5 -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook
• Over 43 points: -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Betting on non-CFP bowl games is tough. Before the transfer portal was as widely used, there were significant opt-outs. Now that players can declare early for the transfer portal, there are more defections ahead of bowl games.

This is a reality even for big-name programs like Alabama and Michigan. The Wolverines (Donovan Edwards) and Crimson Tide (Justice Haynes) have already had backup running backs opt out of the game. More key players could follow, so follow that information before placing any wagers.

If rosters remain relatively the same, Alabama should cover -10.5, and this game will likely go over 43 points. Michigan’s defense has been strong this season, and it is coming off a great performance in the 13-10 win over Ohio State. Take that win with a grain of salt because Ohio State had a head-shaking, atrocious game plan that involved playing into the Wolverines’ strengths.

With nearly a month to prepare, DeBoer and Alabama will create a more effective game plan. Given that runway, Alabama certainly has the talent to score points. It has a proven bowl game coach, too. DeBoer is undefeated in two non-CFP bowl games. In 2021, he led Fresno State to a 31-24 win over UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl. In 2022, he led Washington to a 27-20 win over Texas in the Alamo Bowl.

Except for an outlier game against Northwestern, Michigan’s offense didn’t show much life in the last seven games. The Wolverines won’t lay down against Alabama, but they won’t feel like they have as much to play for as Alabama. They recorded a winning season and a victory over Ohio State. Michigan is planning for next season.

Alabama vs. Michigan moneyline odds analysis

Why Alabama could win as the favorite

Best odds: -365 at Caesars Sportsbook

Alabama is disappointed not to be in the CFP, but DeBoer knows what went wrong — losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. If the Crimson Tide lose another game to a team having a less-than-stellar season, it will be cause for concern.

DeBoer has a strong history of preparing his team for bowl games. Don’t expect that to change this season. He will want to set the tone for his second season and give this program a positive spin heading into the offseason. Blowing out Michigan is a great way to do that.

Why Michigan could win as the underdog

Best odds: +340 at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Wolverines are playing with house money. If they play free from worry in the ReliaQuest Bowl, they may find a formula for a second-straight upset as double-digit underdogs. They hung around against Ohio State and found a way to win in the fourth quarter. The same could happen against Alabama.

Although the personnel is different, the tape of last year’s Rose Bowl win over Alabama will help Michigan’s coaching staff find a solid defensive game plan against Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe.