About the worst possible scenario played out for Alabama football in the ACC title game between Clemson and SMU.

SMU didn’t win. That would have all but automatically got the Crimson Tide into the College Football Playoff. And Clemson didn’t win big. SMU flailing in its biggest game of the season would have been good reason for the CFP committee to leave out the Mustangs. But they didn’t.

Instead, Clemson needed a 56-yard, last-second field goal to secure the victory.

And now, Alabama must wait until 11 a.m. CT on Sunday to find out if it has made the 12-team CFP field.

Here are the reasons for, and against, the Crimson Tide making the first 12-team playoff field over SMU.

The case for Alabama over SMU for CFP

• Alabama has more quality wins. It beat three teams ranked today in the CFP top 25: Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. SMU does not have a win over a team ranked today in the top 25.
• Alabama has a better record against ranked teams. Alabama is 3-1 in games against teams ranked today in the CFP top 25. SMU is 0-2 with losses to BYU and now Clemson.
• Alabama has a better strength of schedule. The Crimson Tide entered Saturday with the No. 18 strength of schedule, per ESPN. SMU had the No. 75 strength of schedule before playing Clemson. The ACC title game will improve it, but not by enough to make SMU’s schedule comparable to Alabama.
• Alabama beat the SEC champion. The Crimson Tide has one of the best wins in college football, having defeated Georgia, who won the SEC on Saturday.
• The transitive property. OK this one’s a bit of a stretch, but follow it for a second: Alabama beat Georgia, who beat Clemson, who beat SMU. Another version: Alabama also beat South Carolina, who beat Clemson, who beat SMU.

The case against Alabama over SMU for CFP

• Teams shouldn’t be penalized for playing in conference championship. The Mustangs would have been in the playoff if the season ended this past week when SMU was ranked as the No. 8 team.
• SMU has a better record overall. Straight up, the Mustangs are 11-2 and Alabama is 9-3.
• SMU doesn’t have a bad loss. The Mustangs lost to two ranked teams by three in each game. Alabama lost by five to Vanderbilt, seven to Tennessee and by 21 to Oklahoma. Only one of those teams is still ranked. The loss to the Sooners was especially bad considering Oklahoma is 6-6.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.