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Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions, picks and best bets for NFL Week 12

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The Cowboys and Commanders will face off in Landover, Maryland, but the NFL teams couldn’t be headed in more opposite directions.

Dallas hasn’t won a game since Week 5 and already is looking toward next season because of a 3-7 record. Washington is 7-4 and fighting to keep up with the Eagles in the NFC East standings.

Oddsmakers don’t think the game will be close, as the Commanders have been favored by this many points in only one other game. Divisional matchups can be difficult to predict, and I’m giving some insight with my expert betting picks for Cowboys versus Commanders.

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions and best bets

I rarely feel comfortable backing double-digit favorites, especially when divisional rivals meet. However, the betting trends for Cowboys versus Commanders make the decision a lot easier.

According to TeamRankings, the Commanders have been one of the best teams to bet on. Washington is 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and 5-1 as a favorite.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been one of the worst teams to back at 2-8 ATS. Dallas has failed to cover in five straight games and is 2-6 as an underdog.

The Commanders have a rest advantage after playing on Thursday night in Week 11. Washington desperately needs a win after dropping back-to-back games. A loss would allow Philadelphia to create even more separation in the NFC East standings.

Commanders head coach Dan Quinn is plenty familiar with the Cowboys’ offensive scheme. Quinn was Dallas’ defensive coordinator for the last three seasons, and things have been going poorly already in Big D. The Cowboys have scored only 16 points in the previous two games.

The defense has been another point of frustration. Dallas struggles mightily against the run, allowing 151 yards per game. No team has given up more rushing touchdowns, and I’m banking on Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. finding the end zone.

Robinson Jr. gets most of Washington’s carries and has a touchdown in six of his eight games.

Cowboys vs. Commanders moneyline odds analysis

Why the Commanders could win as the favorite

Best odds: -550 at BetMGM

Dallas needs a strong run game to provide relief for QB Cooper Rush. Instead, the Cowboys average the second-fewest rushing yards and only have three touchdown runs.

To make matters worse, three of Dallas’ starting offensive linemen suffered injuries in Week 11 and are questionable to suit up against Washington. The Commanders’ defense ranks top 10 in sacks and undoubtedly will get after Rush if the Cowboys can’t pound the rock.

QB Jayden Daniels finally started looking like a rookie in his last two outings. He averaged 196 passing yards with one touchdown and an interception.

His modest stat lines aren’t surprising when you realize he faced two of the NFL’s top defenses (Steelers and Eagles). A matchup with the Cowboys should get Daniels back on track for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Why the Cowboys could win as the underdog

Best odds: +440 at DraftKings

Dallas’ defense already has been awful and having six players on the weekly injury report won’t help. The unit has surrendered 34 points per game since Week 6, and LB Micah Parsons needs to be at his best to slow Daniels.

Parsons has a favorable matchup against LT Brandon Coleman. The rookie has played well, but Parsons always has game-wrecking potential.

It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys will find a spark in the run game in Week 12. Therefore, it’ll be up to Rush and the pass-catchers to match the Commanders‘ scoring (Guard Zack Martin, TE Jake Ferguson and CB Trevon Diggs are both out, which hurts Dallas’ chances overall).

Rush had to throw a lot in last week’s loss to the Texans. He attempted 55 passes and had 354 yards, yet Dallas only scored 10 points. The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot with two turnovers, four failed conversions on fourth down and a missed field goal.

The margin for error is already low, and a similar string of miscues against Washington will make it even more difficult to notch an upset victory.