Alabama has positioned itself for an SEC Championship Game berth, assuming it takes care of business starting with Oklahoma this weekend.

College football analyst Josh Pate is here to remind Tide fans not to assume anything.

Yes, Pate is picking the Tide to win the game, but admits, “I’ll take them to cover, but I have no confidence. I’d light money on fire before I bet it on this game.”

Pate cited Alabama as an 13.5-point but said he sees it more as Tide -11.

There are a couple of reasons Pate drew that conclusion. Is this Oklahoma’s “Super Bowl” spot? A win here or against LSU gets the Sooners bowl eligible. In other words, Oklahoma needs this one.

As far as Alabama, did we see the Tide’s identity game?

“The LSU game, the game where they ran the ball 48 times and threw it 18 times,” Pate explained. “The game wear Jalen Milroe looked like the vintage, cape-wearing version of Jalen Milroe. Did we get the Bama identity game?

“If we did, then Bama ought to win this game, running the ball, despite the fact that Oklahoma has the No. 18 run defense in the country.”

In short, Alabama should impose its will.

Still, Oklahoma’s weakness, Pate said, is giving up passes of more than 20 yards.

“Jalen Milroe, when he is right, is one of the best in the country at throwing the ball deep,” Pate said. “I still think that’s what you got to force Bama to do because what I’m not going to do if I’m Oklahoma is I’m not just gonna sit there and watch 4 run all over me.”

Pate expects Ryan Williams to have a big day Saturday. Add Oklahoma is No. 119 in the country in takeaways and Alabama leads the SEC, it makes sense to take the Tide.

The analyst warns Alabama fans, on the other hand, about Oklahoma’s home-field advantage, athleticism on defense and a must-win mentality. Take a listen above.

Mark Heim is a reporter for The Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Mark_Heim. He can be heard on “The Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5 FM in Mobile or on the free Sound of Mobile App from 6 to 9 a.m. daily.