Auburn-Vanderbilt: What’s at stake in a study of opposites
Take a look at Vanderbilt, for a minute, and appreciate what’s happening here.
What’s been the worst program over the lifespan of the Southeastern Conference is experiencing a glow-up of generational proportions. Picked to finish dead last in the preseason, these Commodores have already upset a No. 1 team (Alabama) and took another former top-ranked team (Texas) to the cusp of disaster.
They’re doing it with a band of transfers and reinvigorated returnees, a savvy head coach who is surrounded by a talented staff.
Statistically, they’re an anomaly of another kind — a reverse Auburn entering its game at 11:45 a.m. CT in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Where the Commodores are ranked poorly in rushing yardage (70th), passing (96th) and total yardage (97th), they’re 40th in scoring.
Auburn is 47th in rushing, 46th in passing and 39th in total yardage but 71st in scoring.
Vanderbilt is overachieving this season. Auburn is underachieving.
Both have some degree of momentum entering this one as Auburn ended its SEC losing streak at five games last week as Vanderbilt fell 27-24 to Texas.
The best-case scenario for Auburn: Just run the dang thing
Auburn clearly figured some things out last week against a Kentucky defense that had been fairly stout this season. They let Jarquez Hunter run wild, hitting the highest rushing total in FBS to date as the 278 yards on 23 attempts ranked fourth-most in Tiger history.
It was the vision so many had fantasized given Auburn’s clear shortcomings at quarterback. Hugh Freeze said Auburn was running the ball successfully even when Kentucky packed the box to skew the numbers game in their favor.
So they should try that again.
It’s clear passing their way to bowl eligibility wasn’t the best bet so, maybe stick with Hunter on the ground?
Vanderbilt arrives with the nation’s 28th-ranked run defense that held Texas to 3.1 yards per carry (34 runs, 104 yards) last week. Missouri had the most success against this team, going for 216 on 40 attempts (5.4 average) while Alabama managed just 84 on 21 tries playing from behind in the upset.
If Auburn can control some clock and keep the ball out of a Vanderbilt offense that held possession for more than 42 minutes of the Alabama game, it can win a second straight SEC game.
The worst case for Auburn: Diego Pavia
You know why.
Prediction: Auburn 24, Vanderbilt 21
Call me a sucker for believing Auburn turned a corner last week in Lexington because it would have been way more fun to predict a third straight Pavia nightmare for Hugh Freeze.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.