NFL Week 9 prop bets for Derrick Henry, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa returned to action last week, and he didn’t miss a beat despite missing six weeks with a concussion.
Can Tagovailoa repeat that kind of performance when the Dolphins face powerful Buffalo? Miami hasn’t fared well against the Bills, so it will be difficult for Tua on the road.
Tua is not the only Alabama football star lighting up the NFL. Former QB Jalen Hurts and RB Derrick Henry continue to pile up stats for the Eagles and Ravens. What is the outlook for those players this week?
Today, we look at the best NFL Week 9 prop bets for Derrick Henry, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa.
Tua Tagovailoa pass completions under 22.5
Best odds: -122 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Game details: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills – 1 p.m. EST Sunday (CBS)
Tua had a productive performance in his return last week, but he’s facing a different animal against Buffalo’s defense.
The Miami QB had a huge game against Buffalo as a rookie with 361 passing yards, but he has been limited against his AFC East rival since then.
In his last six games against the Bills, Tagovailoa is averaging 18.3 completions per game. He has surpassed 22 completions just once. He has thrown six interceptions in his last three games against Buffalo.
Some players have teams they don’t fare well against. The Bills are Tua’s kryptonite.
Derrick Henry receiving yards over 3.5
Best odds: -110 at bet365 Sportsbook
Game details: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens – 1 p.m. EST Sunday (CBS)
The NFL’s rushing leader has been sensational in doing what he does best. Henry averages 6.5 yards per carry and is likely to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season in Sunday’s game against Denver.
Rather than looking at his rushing yardage prop, we’re focused on his receiving yards.
Henry had no catches on two targets in Baltimore’s season opener. Since then, he has caught all eight targets for 66 yards. That’s an average of 8.3 yards per reception.
He has caught at least one pass in six of the seven games in which he received a target, and he has surpassed 3.5 receiving yards in all of those games. This is an easy benchmark to meet.
Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns over 1.5
Best odds: +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Game details: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles – 4:05 p.m. EST Sunday (CBS)
Unlike a traditional pocket passer, Jalen Hurts’ value as a quarterback comes from his ability to do it all. Hurts’ running ability keeps defenses honest. Passing is important, but the fewer times a team passes, the fewer chances the other team has to take away possession.
Hurts never has had prolific passing touchdown statistics. Last season, he had six games out of 17 with more than one passing touchdown. This season he has two such games out of seven.
Sunday’s game against Jacksonville should be his next. The Jaguars are the second-worst passing defense in the league with 271 pass yards allowed per game. They are the worst in passing touchdowns allowed with 17.
This wager is about the odds available. For instance, if you had to lay -120 odds, there would not be value. At even money or better, this prop is worth the price.