Auburn football finally broke a four-game losing streak last week in a 24-10 victory over Kentucky. RB Jarquez Hunter’s career day helped spark a comeback when the Tigers trailed 10-0 in the first quarter.

Up next is a matchup with Vanderbilt (5-3) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn fans are all too familiar with Commodores QB Diego Pavia after he helped New Mexico State upset the Tigers in 2023.

Auburn is only 3-5 on the season, but the best online sportsbooks give a decisive edge to the Tigers.

Vanderbilt vs. Auburn predictions and best bets

• Vanderbilt +7: -110 odds at Caesars
• Vanderbilt to win the race to 10 points: +140 odds at DraftKings

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Home-field advantage hasn’t been there for Auburn this season. The Tigers are 0-3 at Jordan-Hare Stadium versus power-conference opponents, and I’m taking Vanderbilt to stay within the 6.5-point spread Saturday afternoon.

If you want to back the Commodores on the moneyline, bet365’s +210 odds are among the best on the market.

Vanderbilt has been one of the best teams in the nation against the spread (ATS), and TeamRankings reports the Commodores are 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, Auburn is only 2-3 ATS as a favorite with three outright losses.

Pavia already has beaten Auburn as a 25.5-point underdog when he threw for 201 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 blowout last year.

Pavia has been a key contributor to the Commodores’ resurgent season. Vanderbilt lost in double OT versus Missouri, upset Alabama and fell short by three points against Texas.

The transfer QB is athletic and has the sixth-most rushing yards in the SEC.

Auburn has gotten better at limiting turnovers, but the issue hasn’t been fully resolved. The Tigers have coughed up the rock 17 times and have a turnover in all but one game.

Vanderbilt has only five turnovers, and the Commodores’ ability to control time of possession will be vital if the defense gets a few takeaways.

Vanderbilt vs. Auburn moneyline odds analysis

Why Auburn could win as the favorite

Best odds: -235 at FanDuel

Hunter was unstoppable last week, rushing for 278 yards and two touchdowns. If he provides only half of that production, the Tigers will be in excellent shape against Vanderbilt.

Vandy has struggled against the run, so we’ll likely see a heavy dosage of Hunter.

Airing it out isn’t a bad choice against the Commodores, either. Vanderbilt surrenders more than 220 passing yards per game and has allowed the second-most touchdown throws in the SEC.

QB Payton Thorne had his most efficient outing of the year last week, completing 77% of his passes. He only had 172 yards, but if Hunter has another big day, a similar stat line from Thorne will get the job done.

Auburn’s defense must find a way to limit Pavia on the ground. The Tigers held Diego to 35 yards last year, but the senior has surpassed that total in every game thus far.

Why Vanderbilt could win as the underdog

Best odds: +210 at bet365

Auburn’s pass rushers have 20 sacks, but Pavia is hard to bring down. He’s one of the least-sacked starting QBs in the conference, which helps to stay on schedule and avoid clear passing situations.

Vanderbilt’s solid rushing attack relies heavily on Pavia, and Auburn LB Demarcus Riddick did well as a QB spy versus Oklahoma’s mobile QB Michael Hawkins Jr.

Controlling time of possession is a strong point for the Commodores, as they lead the conference in the statistic. If Pavia isn’t gaining rushing yards like normal, RB Sedrick Alexander must be ready to step up.

Alexander has gotten only 15+ carries twice, and he went for a combined 133 yards and three touchdowns.