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Missouri vs. Alabama CFB Week 9 predictions, odds and best bets

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Two SEC football programs with similar stakes meet Saturday as the Alabama Crimson Tide will go toe-to-toe with the Missouri Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

Both teams have College Football Playoff aspirations, but a loss Saturday could be detrimental to their chances.

Will QB Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide prevail? Or will QB Brady Cook and the Missouri Tigers find a way to pull off the upset on the road?

Missouri vs. Alabama predictions and best bets

While I like the Crimson Tide to win Saturday, I don’t have enough confidence in them to cover what is a large spread.

Missouri played some inspired football late in its victory against Auburn that could roll over into this weekend. For an Alabama team coming off of a loss, there are some hiccups I want to see ironed out first.

Paired with that, the line set for the Tigers’ point total is very low. With the ability to produce on the ground and through the air, with a veteran quarterback under center, I trust the Tigers to be able to create some scoring drives.

They fell flat against Texas A&M because of the Aggies’ terrific front seven, but Alabama doesn’t have that caliber of pass rush up front. Look for the Tigers to be able to get enough points on the board to surpass 14.5 and stay close enough to cover in this one.

CFB Week 9 Missouri vs. Alabama moneyline odds analysis

Why Alabama could win as the favorite

Best odds: -750 at DraftKings Sportsbook

With -750 as the best odds you can find on the moneyline, it’s clear the expectation is for the Crimson Tide to handle business at home Saturday. That doesn’t mean it will be easy, however.

For this team to win, Milroe will need to regain his momentum as one of the top players in college football. In the past three games, he’s thrown five interceptions and has fumbled twice. Cleaner play and more efficiency is required for Alabama to close out games against top teams.

Getting better at working forward in the pocket and being quicker at diagnosing the play will go a long way in improving his dependability and reinserting himself into the Heisman race.

Defensively, the focus will need to be on limiting Missouri’s stars. RB Nate Noel is doubtful to play, but the Crimson Tide allowed Dylan Sampson to grind out yardage against them in their loss to Tennessee. Keeping RB Marcus Carroll in check will be crucial.

The secondary is one of Alabama‘s top units, but it’ll be tested as well. WRs Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr. are one of the top receiving duos in the country. If they’re held in check this weekend, the game certainly should go Alabama’s way.

Why Missouri could win as the underdog

Best odds: +590 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Despite a 6-1 start to the season, 2024 has been a bit disappointing for the Missouri Tigers. The team has the offensive firepower, but overall has come out flat against a schedule that has been favorable to them through the first seven games.

In the one major test the Tigers had on the season, they got slaughtered, 41-10, by Texas A&M. The Tigers showed some signs of life as a program last week, however.

Down 17-6 to Auburn with Cook back in the game after an injury, Missouri put together its best 15 minutes of football to storm back and win, 21-17. While the Tigers should have won the game more comfortably, that type of wake up call and response can be a huge spark heading into the second-half of the season.

For an Alabama team that has faltered lately, the Tigers are getting it at the right time. Great teams are able to bounce back in the face of adversity, but if the Crimson Tide aren’t great, it could lead to a collapse.

If the Tigers can force Milroe to be uncomfortable in his pass drops and force him to try to create plays with effective spy defenders ready to reel him in, then Missouri could pull off the upset on the road.