3 ways Trump signaled to white Evangelicals for the Iowa Caucus win

3 ways Trump signaled to white Evangelicals for the Iowa Caucus win

Former Pres. Donald Trump took a massive victory at Monday’s Iowa Caucus, securing his place as the frontrunner for the Republican Party’s presidential candidate for 2024.

Coverage of Monday night’s meetings and elections featured poll data about white Evangelicals, a key part of the GOP’s voter base. Reporters talked to Iowa voters who braved the cold and gathered data to create “entrance polls” – that is a poll based on responses from people who come out to vote.

CNN entrance poll data found 55% of caucus-goers identified as a “born-again or evangelical Christian.”

The polls also found 65% of caucus-goers said they’d consider him fit for office even if he were convicted of a crime. He faces charges in four cases but denies all wrongdoing.

Nearly the same percentage (66%) said they believe the election was stolen with 80% of Trump supporters saying the same.

It all matters because Trump is gaining massive ground among evangelical voters, who made up 55% of Trump voters in Iowa. Since the 2016 Iowa Caucus, where 21% of evangelicals supported Trump, the former president has more than doubled his evangelical support.

With the vast majority of his supporters (69% according to CNN data) believing Trump actually won the 2020 election, what was once a “fringe” view is spreading and has clearly spread among Republicans who caucused Monday.

Reckon looked at the results, data and reporting surrounding the nation’s first major event of the 2024 electoral calendar to see what Trump signaled to white Evangelicals to obtain his victory and how those tactics could help him take the election.

1. “God made Trump”

There are more than enough bizarre clips of Trump that are popular with evangelicals, but one recent campaign ad signaled to them directly.

The campaign featured the controversial AI-driven ad, shared widely online and at rallies, invoking religious language and mimicking the voice of conservative radio icon Paul Harvey, appealing directly to Evangelicals who believe Trump is divinely appointed.

The ad first appeared on Trump’s Truth Social account, but has since spread across the internet and the campaign stage. Trump reportedly played the video before he took the stage at several rallies in Iowa over the weekend ahead of the caucus.

“God said, ‘I need somebody willing to get up before dawn, fix this country, work all day, fight the Marxists, eat supper, then go to the Oval Office, and stay past midnight at a meeting of the state, so God made Trump,” the narrator says.

The video appears to use artificial intelligence to mimic the voice and style of of Paul Harvey, a conservative radio broadcaster who died in 2009.

While poll data clearly shows Trump is leading with the evangelical crowd, some Christians pastors took offense to the video, calling it “concerning.”

“The original sin of Satan or Lucifer is not that he wanted to take over God’s position but that he wanted to be like God. There is only one god, and it’s not Trump or any other man,” Pastor Joseph Brown of the Marion Avenue Baptist Church in Washington, Iowa, told The New York Times last week. Brown said he voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 but says he will not this year.

Despite Brown’s opinion, many evangelical voters do believe that Trump was ordained by God. Since 2016, internet memes and faith leaders alike have claimed Trump was divinely appointed. That idea has filtered into voters’ ideals, as observed in Iowa in the past month.

“I believe Trump is appointed by God—appointed-slash-anointed, however you want to say it,” Joannie Firkins, 63, of Iowa told the Boston Globe at a Trump rally in Coralville, Iowa in December. “He’s the only one that’s speaking the truth.”

2. Strategic messaging on faith

Trump strategically emphasized his alignment with white Evangelicals, using campaign messaging and events to present himself as the defender of conservative Christian principles.

Trump had planned to hold a campaign event at First Church of God in Des Moines last week featuring Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former press secretary, and her father, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister and former presidential candidate, before weather forced the event to be canceled, the Associated Press reported.

The event was billed as part of the former president’s “Team Trump Iowa Faith Tour,” where he met with faith leaders and other prominent conservatives supporting his campaign. The tour also included events with former presidential candidate Ben Carson, who visited Grace Family Church in Davenport and Grace Baptist Church in Marion.

Trump has also collected significant support from faith leaders in Iowa aside from those who hosted campaign events ahead of the caucus.

Trump has an easier time reaching evangelicals now than in the past two election cycles, in part because of more evangelical influencers, Tim Alberta, author of “The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory,” told Axios.

“Trump benefits today from a decentralized cast of less-established, more-online influencers,” Alberta said. “He once needed the name-brand Christian conservatives to vouch for him.”

Iowa voters who participated in entrance polls were asked to choose from a series of “reasons” why they were caucusing for their candidate. Reasons included that they felt that the candidate “shares my values,” “has right temperament,” “fights for people like me,” and “can defeat Biden.” Trump supporters overwhelmingly–82%–selected “fights for people like me” as their reason why they picked their candidate.

3. Focusing on one key issue: Immigration

White Evangelicals are more opposed to immigration reform and hold more negative views toward immigrants than any other demographic group, according to 2015 data from the Public Religion Research Institute.

For Trump supporters who turned out Monday night, 65% said immigration was the most important issue for them. No other candidate’s supporters came near this figure for Trump.

The data tells other interesting stories about GOP issues with abortion being the biggest issue for DeSantis supporters and foreign policy taking top concern for Haley supporters.

Abortion, another issue important to Evangelicals, was also measured in the entrance poll data. CNN’s enrance poll found 55% of Trump voters said they would support a total abortion ban, compared to 25% of DeSantis voters and 10% of Haley voters who said they would do the same.

What’s next?

The next important GOP primary event will be held in New Hampshire next week. The election will be Jan 23.

There, New Hampshire Republicans will vote for their pick for the GOP Presidential candidate–among three remain: Trump, DeSantis and Haley.

Unlike in Iowa, which uses a “caucus” system, voters in New Hampshire cast their ballots much as they would during any other vote.

Trump’s massive win in Iowa is a strong showing, but Haley’s campaign says they expect to have a bigger showing in New Hampshire. Haley announced she would not participate in two scheduled debates ahead of the New Hampshire primary unless Trump joined her on stage — suggesting she plans to ignore Ron DeSantis, who took second place in Iowa.

The debate was canceled Wednesday following her announcement.

The Republican Party will nominate its candidate for the 2024 presidential election against incumbent Pres. Joe Biden at the Republican National Convention in July.